JAY MYERS.COM
Sports commentary and analysis
NFL MLB NCAAGrid NCAAHoops NBA SPORTS LINKS Blog
Jay Myers, the first editor of Basketball Times during the Larry Bird-Magic Johnson era, has studied the sports scene closely for many years as both journalist and game analyst. His college basketball J-ratings, which appear beginning in late January, place teams in their projected March Madness seeds. He has been a guest of Rick Barry (San Francisco), Doug Russell (Sporting News), Jeff Aaron (Seattle), Grant Napier (Sacramento), Chad Hastings (Austin), Arnie Spanier (Atlanta), Stan Savran (Pittsburgh), Kevin Rogers (Kansas City) and many others discussing college basketball, the NFL, and college football.
Questions or comments? Contact Jay at Jcard64@aol.com
Sunday Sauce
SUPER BOWL: Plowhorse Brandon Jacobs is the opening move in the Giants' bid to ruin the Patriots' dream of immortality, but Jacobs will be resisted at least early in the game by the proud New England linebackers. Though battered by Jacksonville and San Diego in their home playoff wins, the extra week off will reinvigorate New England. Therefore, it is all about whether the Pats can get off to the flying offensive start that would surely put the Giants in their conventionally perceived place--nice-trying but short-coming Super Bowl underdog. The Giants' defense is built to bury quarterbacks, even one as proficient as Tom Brady. Bill Belichick knows this, and also knows that one big pass play to Randy Moss was both all they got and all they needed to regain the lead against the Giants in the clubs' important first meeting in December.
Tom Coughlin knows the crucial role of the big pass play in New England's psyche job over the entire NFL. His defense will have as its mission the denial of such a play in this biggest of games. Laurence Maroney and Kevin Faulk are not built to continually carry the football, especially inside the tackles, but the combination of their runs and Brady's characteristic short passes to Wes Welker and anyone else should glide them down the field and into the red zone. There the Giants will make stand after stand, with D-coordinator Steve Spagnuolo exhibiting the full bloom of his apprenticeship under Jim Johnson and this impressive season with the Giants. With a front four that is so effective at pass-rushing, Spagnuolo has many blitz moves he can employ in the Super Bowl. One or two big plays from his defense can turn this game around because Coughlin won't let the Pats' defenders forget Jacobs and be comfortable enough to make the big play. Too many times, the Pats will have to settle for field goals after substantial drives. Too few times will the Giants make the mistake that sends Brady and Moss and friends back onto the field ready to stick the fork into a disillusioned defense.
Count the accomplished vets on the Giants defense: Umeyiora, Robbins, Strahan, Pierce, Madison, McQuarters, Mitchell, Wilson. They have played and won big games, yet they have not been bludgeoned as have the Pats in the post-season by the most formidable of opponents. Tampa Bay, Dallas and Green Bay all have serious flaws, flaws that are missing in the Jaguars and Chargers. The weight on the Giants is not nearly what it is on the Pats; and that is a result not only of an undefeated record but also of the foes met on the road to it. All season long, New York has exceeded most NFL devotees' expectations so why not here and now? The Patriots have now had several close calls and know that they are not invulnerable. Eli Manning has not received mention in this piece until now. His arsenal has been expanded with rookie Steve Smith's return to health, and the three Giants' receivers are bound to keep a so-so group of New England corners on their heels. Don't forget the capable blocking of Giants' FB Madison Hedgecock that will be so important to Manning's preservation. Sometimes, life is unfair, and New England has stirred passions by going unbeaten to this point---but no further. NY GIANTS...
-------------------
NFL Raw Offense & Defense J-Ratings
Through Week 15
Raw Offense: 1. New England; 2. Indianapolis; 3. Dallas; 4. New Orleans; 5. Green Bay: 6. Jacksonville; 7. Cleveland; 8. Cincinnati; 9. San Diego; 10. Pittsburgh; 11. Houston; 12. Denver; 13. Arizona; 14. Seattle; 15. Washington; 16. Philadelphia; 17. Tampa Bay; 18. Tennessee; 19. N.Y. Giants; 20. Minnesota; 21. Buffalo; 22. Detroit; 23. Miami; 24. Oakland; 25. Carolina; 26. Baltimore; 27. N.Y. Jets; 28. Chicago; 29. St. Louis; 30. Atlanta; 31. Kansas City; 32. San Francisco.
Raw Defense: 1. New England; 2. Pittsburgh; 3. Green Bay; 4. N.Y. Giants; 5. Tampa Bay; 6. Philadelphia; 7. Indianapolis; 8. Seattle; 9. Dallas; 10. San Diego; 11. Tennessee; 12. Kansas City; 13. Baltimore; 14. Jacksonville; 15. Minnesota; 16. Washington; 17. Chicago; 18. Atlanta; 19. New Orleans; 20. Arizona; 21. Denver; 22. Oakland; 23. Houston; 24. Carolina; 25. San Francisco; 26. St. Louis; 27. Buffalo; 28. Cincinnati; 29. N.Y. Jets; 30. Cleveland; 31. Miami; 32. Detroit.
Applied Offense--Takes Schedule into Consideration
1. New England; 2. Indianapolis; 3. Dallas; 4. New Orleans; 5. Cleveland; 6. Cincinnati; 7. Jacksonville; 8. Green Bay; 9. San Diego; 10. Denver; 11. Arizona; 12. Houston; 13. Washington; 14. Seattle; 15. Detroit; 16. Tampa Bay; 17. Minnesota; 18. Tennessee; 19. Philadelphia; 20. N.Y. Giants; 21. Pittsburgh; 22. Miami; 23. Buffalo; 24. Carolina. 25. Kansas City; 26. Oakland; 27. Chicago; 28. N.Y. Jets; 29. Baltimore; 30. St. Louis; 31. Atlanta; 32. San Francisco.
Applied Defense
1. Pittsburgh; 2. Philadelphia; 3. Baltimore; 4. New England; 5. Tampa Bay; 6. N.Y. Giants; 7. Kansas City; 8. Tennessee; 9. Chicago; 10. Atlanta; 11. Indianapolis; 12. San Diego; 13. Washington; 14. N.Y. Jets; 15. Seattle; 16. Carolina; 17. Oakland; 18. Green Bay; 19. Jacksonville; ; 20. Buffalo; 21. St. Louis; 22. Minnesota; 23. San Francisco; 24. Dallas; 25. Houston; 26. Arizona; 27. Denver; 28. Miami; 29. New Orleans; 30. Cincinnati; 31. Cleveland; 32. Detroit.
Combined Applied Offense-Defense Ratings
New England plus-19
Indianapolis plus-12 but poor special teams
Dallas plus-7
Pittsburgh plus-5
Jacksonville plus-5
Philadelphia plus-5
San Diego plus-4
Green Bay plus-4 and great special teams
Tampa Bay plus-3
Washington plus-3
New Orleans plus-3 but poor special teams
Tennessee plus-2
N.Y. Giants plus-2
Seattle plus-1
Arizona even
Cincinnati even
Denver even but poor special teams
Kansas City minus-1
Cleveland minus-1
Baltimore minus-1
Houston minus-2
Minnesota minus-2
Chicago minus-3
Carolina minus-4
Buffalo minus-4 but great special teams
N.Y. Jets minus-4
Oakland minus-4
Atlanta minus-5
Miami minus-6
Detroit minus-7
St. Louis minus-8
San Francisco minus-11 but great special teams
QB/O-line efficiency ratings---the lower the number, the better
Through Week 15
Pittsburgh 10
St. Louis 12
Carolina 7
Dallas 5
Green Bay 4
Chicago 12
Washington 6
Minnesota 6
Philadelphia 9
New Orleans 3
N.Y. Giants 6
Buffalo 6
Cleveland 4
Cincinnati 5
Kansas City 15
Detroit 13
Houston 6
Indianapolis 5
Oakland 8
Jacksonville 6
Miami 8
New England 4
Baltimore 9
Seattle 8
Atlanta 11
Arizona 6
N.Y. Jets 12
Tennessee 6
Tampa Bay 7
San Francisco 11
Denver 6
San Diego 5
Mock Knock, Who's There?
First Round
1. Miami: Jake Long, RT; 2. St. Louis: Glenn Dorsey, DT; 3. Atlanta: Chris Long, DE; 4. Oakland: Darren McFadden, RB; 5. Kansas City: Branden Albert, T; 6. NY Jets: Matt Ryan, QB; 7. New England: Vernon Gholston, LB; 8. Baltimore: Sedric Ellis, DT; 9. Cincinnati: Keith Rivers, LB; 10. New Orleans: Mike Jenkins, CB; 11. Buffalo: Limas Sweed, WR; 12. Denver: Devin Thomas, WR; 13. Carolina: Ryan Clady, T; 14. Detroit: Jerod Mayo, LB; 15. Chicago: Chris Williams, T; 16. Arizona: Leodis McKelvin, CB; 17. Kansas City: Derrick Harvey, DE; 18. Houston: Aqib Talib, CB; 19. Philadelphia: Jeff Otah, T; 20. Tampa Bay: DeSean Jackson, WR; 21. Washington: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB; 22. Dallas: Brandon Flowers, CB; 23. Pittsburgh: Jonathan Stewart, RB; 24. Tennessee: Rashard Mendenhall, RB; 25. Seattle: Kentwan Balmer, DT; 26. Jacksonville: Philip Merling, DE; 27. San Diego: Gosder Cherilus, T; 28. Dallas: Felix Jones, RB; 29. San Francisco: Mario Manningham, WR; 30. Green Bay: Tyvon Branch, CB; 31. forfeited; 32. NY Giants: Tyrell Johnson, S.
Second Round
33. Miami: Quentin Groves, LB; 34. St. Louis: James Hardy, WR; 35. Atlanta: Carl Nicks, T; 36. Kansas City: Calais Campbell, DE; 37. NY Jets: Justin King, CB; 38. Atlanta: Marcus Harrison, DT; 39. Baltimore: Charles Godfrey, CB; 40. San Francisco: Cliff Avril, LB; 41. New Orleans: Dre Moore, DT; 42. Buffalo: Dustin Keller, TE; 43. Denver: Athyba Rubin, DT; 44. Carolina: Kenny Phillips, S; 45. Chicago: Jamaal Charles, RB; 46. Detroit: Lawrence Jackson, DE; 47. Cincinnati: Dan Connor, LB; 48. Minnesota: Anthony Collins, T; 49. Atlanta: Tracy Porter, CB; 50. Philadelphia: DaJuan Morgan, S; 51. Arizona; Chris Johnson, RB; 52. Washington: Malcolm Kelly, WR; 53. Tampa Bay: Trevor Laws, DT; 54. Pittsburgh: Sam Baker, T; 55. Tennessee: Jason Jones, DE; 56. Seattle: Fred Davis, TE; 57. Green Bay: Martellus Bennett, TE; 58. Miami: Patrick Lee, CB; 59. Jacksonville: Antwaun Molden, CB; 60. Indianapolis: Brad Cottam, TE; 61. Green Bay: Darrell Robertson, DE; 62. Dallas: Donnie Avery, WR; 63. New England: Mike McGlynn, T; 64. NY Giants: Tavares Gooden, LB.
Picking the Second Day after the First
Third Round
64. Miami: Cliff Avril, OLB; 65. St. Louis: Jeremy Thompson, DE; 66. Detroit: Dan Connor, LB; 67. Carolina: Reggie Smith, S; 68. Atlanta: Marcus Harrison, DT; 69. New England: Chris Ellis, DE; 70. Chicago: Earl Bennett, WR; 71. Baltimore: Charles Godfrey, CB; 72. Buffalo: Brad Cottam, TE; 73. Kansas City: Carl Nicks, T; 74. Carolina: Dre Moore, DT; 75. San Francisco: Shawn Crable, OLB; 76. Kansas City: John David Booty, QB; 77. Cincinnati: Ahtyba Rubin, DT; 78. New England: Tavares Gooden, LB; 79. Houston: Kevin Smith, RB; 80. Philadelphia: DaJuan Morgan, S; 81. Arizona: Tyvon Branch, CB; 82. Kansas City: Mario Manningham, WR; 83. Tampa Bay: Early Doucet, WR; 84. Atlanta: Justin King, CB; 85. Tennessee: Patrick Sims, DT; 86. Baltimore: Geno Hayes, LB; 87. Detroit: Andre Caldwell, WR; 88. Pittsburgh: Roy Schuening, G; 89. Houston: Orlando Scandrick, CB: 90. Chicago: Red Bryant, DT; 91. Green Bay: Chevis Jackson, CB; 92. Dallas: Harry Douglas, WR; 93. Indianapolis: Kellen Davis, TE; 94. New England: Tom Zbikowski, S; 95. NY Giants: Will Franklin, WR; 96. Washington: Letroy Guion, DT; 97. Cincinnati: Andre Fluellen, DT; 98. Atlanta: Darrell Robertson, DE; 99. Baltimore: Oniel Cousins, T.
2007-08 Selection Sunday J-Ratings through games of March 15
1--Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA, Kansas
2--Tennessee, Texas, Wisconsin, Duke
3--Xavier, Georgetown, Stanford, Pitt
4--Louisville, Washington State, Butler, Clemson
5--Drake, Notre Dame, Indiana, Connecticut
6--Michigan State, Marquette, Southern Cal, Arkansas
7--Gonzaga, Davidson, Vanderbilt, Purdue
8--Texas A&M, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Kent State
9--Kansas State, BYU, St. Joseph's, Miami
10--South Alabama, Arizona, UNLV, St. Mary's
11--Temple, Baylor, Arizona State, Western Kentucky
12--Illinois State, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Ohio State
13--Oral Roberts, Siena, George Mason, Cal State- Fullerton
14--American, Cornell, Winthrop, Boise State
15--Maryland-Baltimore County, Austin Peay, Belmont, San Diego
16--Portland State, Northwestern State/Texas-Arlington, Mount St. Mary's, Coppin State, Mississippi Valley State
Could be bumped by Georgia and/or Illinois: Virginia Tech, Ohio State.
Outside and looking in: Florida, Massachusetts, VCU, Mississippi, Syracuse, Houston, Villanova, Creighton, Kentucky, Stephen F. Austin, UAB, IUPUI, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon.
...
NBA Draft: Whom Do I Pick?
The College Football J-RatingsCheck back in October, 2007.
Just a Thought or Two on BaseballCopyright 2006 by Jayson Myers.