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Jay Myers, the first editor of Basketball Times during the Larry Bird-Magic Johnson era, has studied the sports scene closely for many years as both journalist and game analyst. His college basketball J-ratings, which appear beginning in late January, place teams in their projected March Madness seeds. He has been a guest of Rick Barry (San Francisco), Doug Russell (Sporting News), Jeff Aaron (Seattle), Grant Napier (Sacramento), Chad Hastings (Austin), Arnie Spanier (Atlanta), Stan Savran (Pittsburgh), Kevin Rogers (Kansas City) and many others discussing college basketball, the NFL, and college football.
Questions or comments? Contact Jay at Jcard64@aol.com
Sunday Sauce
Selection Sunday--------JayBrackets
1--Louisville, North Carolina, Pitt, Memphis 2--Connecticut, Duke, Michigan State, Oklahoma 3--Missouri, Gonzaga, Wake Forest, Villanova 4--Kansas, Syracuse, Purdue, Washington 5--Xavier, UCLA, Florida State, Arizona State 6--Illinois, West Virginia, Ohio State, Clemson 7--Butler, BYU, LSU, Oklahoma State 8--Marquette, Texas, Tennessee, Texas A&M 9--Michigan, California, Wisconsin, Utah 10--USC, Boston College, Siena, Minnesota 11--Maryland, Utah State, Creighton, Dayton 12--Mississippi State, Temple, VCU, Cleveland State 13--Northern Iowa, Western Kentucky, Stephen F. Austin, N. Dakota State 14--Akron, Robert Morris, American U., Portland State 15--Binghamton, Cal State-Northridge, East Tennessee State, Morgan State 16--Cornell, Radford, Chattanooga, Alabama State, Morehead State --------------------- StatPower First set of numbers is defensive ratio thus far in 2008. Second set is offensive set. Third numeral is raw net rating. Fourth number is opponents' average net rating. Fifth number is team's adjusted offense+defense rating. Sixth stat is takeaway/giveaway ratio. Seventh comment is whether team has plus or minus special teams. No entry here means special teams are average. Last comment is red zone efficiency. Through week 12 Tennessee 755/147 751/286 12 n4 4 +13 Philadelphia 758/154 784/286 9 0 4 +1 Pittsburgh 737/114 745/205 7 0 3 +4 San Diego 810/283 664/255 10 1 5 -2 Indianapolis 757/233 742/272 4 0 2 +5 minus-specs NY Giants 689/151 777/330 8 n1 3 +10 plus-specs Green Bay 747/241 767/254 n1 2 0 +4 Chicago 804/242 755/234 3 n1 1 +6 New Orleans 756/238 777/335 6 0 3 -5 Tampa Bay 706/142 789/235 1 1 1 +3 plus-specs Carolina 767/206 707/255 9 0 4 +5 Atlanta 782/265 769/286 3 2 2 -1 Dallas 721/189 729/279 7 n2 2 -5 Denver 765/300 744/308 2 0 1 -11 minus-specs NY Jets 750/227 759/277 3 n2 0 -1 plus-specs Baltimore 677/129 809/251 n1 1 0 +7 plus-specs Arizona 712/273 773/333 0 1 0 even minus-specs Seattle 803/278 684/164 0 0 0 -5 Miami 705/214 737/268 2 n2 0 +10 minus-specs Cincinnati 801/278 733/136 n6 3 n2 -5 Jacksonville 722/245 755/229 n4 0 n2 -1 Cleveland 753/280 704/203 n2 0 n1 +6 plus-specs Minnesota 710/172 771/207 n2 1 n1 even minus-specs San Francisco 797/258 694/164 1 n1 0 -13 plus-specs Oakland 785/257 691/121 n4 1 n2 +4 plus-specs Buffalo 727/241 747/209 n4 n2 n3 -5 Washington 688/209 772/223 n6 1 n3 +2 minus-specs New England 687/227 751/244 n4 0 n2 -3 Kansas City 735/295 729/184 n9 2 n4 +5 Houston 709/304 741/265 n6 0 n3 -10 Detroit 744/342 675/110 n14 1 n7 -9 St. Louis 755/317 747/93 n18 2 n8 -9 plus-specs Drive Chart First set of numbers is percentage of opponents' successful drives. Second set of numbers is percentage of team's own successful drives. Third set of numbers is difference between own percentage and opponents' percentage measured in hundredths of a percentage point. Fourth set of numbers of opponents' difference between own percentage and opponents' percentage measured in hundredths of a percentage point. Fifth set of numbers is actual drive differential. Sixth set of numbers of takeaway/giveaway ratio. Seventh set of numbers is red zone efficiency. Through week 5 Buffalo .241 .345 104 n60 22 .655 9/9 Miami .412 .352 n60 18 n21 .750 8/4 New England .321 .356 35 n36 n1 .618 6/7 NY Jets .357 .368 n11 6 n3 .674 10/13 Baltimore .263 .241 n22 20 n1 .583 9/13 Cincinnati .338 .257 n61 56 n3 .678 10/13 Cleveland .288 .265 n23 65 58 3 .647 12/7 Pittsburgh .179 .357 158 n13 72 .823 10/6 Houston .446 .385 n61 n13 n37 .700 5/14 Indianapolis .417 .340 n77 15 n31 .794 10/8 Jacksonville .407 .388 n19 32 6 .559 9/7 Tennessee .200 .305 105 n54 25 .861 14/8 Denver .439 .400 n39 n38 n39 .708 7/11 Kansas City .377 .175 n202 n9 n106 .666 11/10 Oakland .356 .231 n125 n16 n71 .625 10/8 San Diego .407 .458 51 n1 25 .692 10/9 Dallas .377 .382 5 46 25 .682 7/13 NY Giants .308 .500 192 n71 59 .680 5/4 Philadelphia .262 .373 111 n24 43 .673 12/7 Washington .286 .365 79 34 56 .729 8/5 Chicago .250 .250 0 1 0 .696 16/11 Detroit .426 .242 n184 23 n81 .833 6/9 Green Bay .279 .429 150 n23 63 .732 14/8 Minnesota .279 .321 42 9 25 .575 11/15 Atlanta .357 .400 43 n23 10 .600 7/5 Carolina .203 .290 87 n10 38 .647 9/9 New Orleans .365 .350 n15 8 n4 .646 9/13 Tampa Bay .254 .265 11 n1 5 .625 15/11 Arizona .358 .474 116 16 66 .714 11/12 St. Louis .375 .226 n149 43 n53 .625 9/6 San Francisco .406 .371 n35 32 n2 .659 10/18 Seattle .464 .230 n234 45 n95 .656 5/11 NFL Preview NEW ENGLAND: Four defensive draft choices and a project at QB in the first five picks of the draft was confirmation that the Pats were fearful of a deteriorating defensive predicament. After the loss of solid CB Asante Samuel, they will need to get rookie CB Terrence Wheatley and second-year swing man Brandon Meriweather onto the field and performing well very quickly. They drafted Jerod Mayo, a linebacker who instantly upgrades their athleticism in that foursome. A healthier Richard Seymour should wreak havoc up front on opposing offensive schemes. With Mayo playing inside, Adalius Thomas can do more damage from the outside. The offense, best by two miles last season, figures to get a little more out of RB Lawrence Maroney and TE David Thomas than last year, but the O-line is banged up threatening an extension of the special numbers of 2007. Better defense, declining offense, better chance for Super Bowl title. 11-5. BUFFALO: The Bills added quite a chunk to the D---DT Marcus Stroud, rookie CB Leodis McKelvin, LBs Kawika Mitchell and Paul Posluszny, S Ko Simpson, plus the expected improvement of DT John McCargo and S Donte Whitner. The offense could make a mild move upward. RB Marshawn Lynch is top shelf, but a lot depends on the acclimation of rookie WR James Hardy who will be expected to snatch the short passes that must be completed if more Bills drive are to be extended. QB Trent Edwards has packed some poundage onto his frame, enabling him to better take hits in the pocket. Where the Bills actually lose ground is on special teams, as they did not re-sign three veteran mainstays. It keeps me from making more of this club’s improvements. The defense could be one year away from becoming one of the better units in the league. Hardy will need time to get on the same page with developing QB Edwards.More sizzle but still no consistency is foreseen. Bills move to middle of NFL pack but no further. 7-9. NY JETS: Big question heading into summer was whether the Jets would pass the Browns as the second best version of the Patriots, but then along came Favre. The offensive line should be way better after imports of ex-Steelers G Alan Faneca, vet OL Damien Woody, FB Tony Richardson and TE Bubba Franks. Wideouts Brad Smith and Chansi Stuckey should make greater contributions, but the key on offense is rookie H-back Dustin Keller who is supposed to stretch the middle of the field. The strikepower should be startling compared to recent seasons. The Jets had a lot of ground to make up defensively but hit a home run with the signing of OLB Calvin Pace and the drafting of OLB Vernon Gholston. Add the signing of DT Kris Jenkins, and this becomes a different unit provided that these new parts are worked into the mix quickly and efficiently enough. ILB David Harris cannot continue to be the only guy in the front seven who delivers results against the run. It is not going to be an elite unit, but it would be a big disappointment if it does not become competitive. Probable losses to the Patriots and Chargers in the second and third weeks will really test the resolve of this reconstituted group but they should come on late. 8-8. MIAMI: Dolphins get the Bill Parcells/Tony Sparano makeover, though the defense loses Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor. No veteran second-guessers allowed, you get the picture? Remaining is enough veteran presence to stymie some opponents--DE Vonnie Holliday, OLB Joey Porter, NT Jason Ferguson and ILB Akin Ayodele and Channing Crowder. Smart emphasis on the D-line in the draft brought Philip Merling and Kendall Langford, both of whom should contribute early. The offense picks up Jake Long, supposedly the best left tackle on the draft board but we’ll see. Also new on offense are QB Chad Pennington, G Justin Smiley, WR Ernest Wilford and TE Anthony Fasano. C Samson Satele and WR Ted Ginn are good young players, Ginn a game-breaker. The line will be better and therefore so will the production from RBs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. The play-action passing game moves up with the arrival of Pennington. The club will be on a mission early, and the first two games will be important because the third one is New England and the fourth San Diego. If the Fish can shock the Jets opening week, they will be competitive all year. 5-11. PITTSBURGH: The Steelers hope to have Troy Polamalu all season looking like his old self. They also hope to have second year LB Lawrence Timmons in the lineup learning from colleague James Farrior. About the biggest piece of excitement concerning the Steelers' D is that second-year OLB LaMarr Woodley could be ready to make his entrance as a major sacking force. Truth is, this is basically an ordinary team that has benefited from membership in the AFC North. New RB Rashad Mendenhall and WR Limas Sweed should help to re-energize the offense but that won't happen right away. While center and tackles improved, LG Alan Faneca left after some very good years there. Special teams add returner Mewelde Moore. One thing to beware is that the Steelers are mired in ownership uncertainty. Ben Roethlisberger's strong arm is the best part of what used to be a team noted for defensive prowess. Without Faneca spearheading the O-line, this hardly looks like the Steelers of old or even recent vintage. 8-8. CLEVELAND: The Browns went big in an attempt to right a discouraging defensive performance. Picking up major roadblocks Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams is rational, but the Browns still rely on Willie McGinest, a player the Pats let go a while back. They are also not fully stocked at cornerback. I wonder if these defensive moves are out of sync. If the secondary is not fully ready until 2009, what will the Browns accomplish in 2008 with the influx of D-linemen? The offense was very capable last year, yet one or two bad games by Derek Anderson would reproduce the QB controversy involving Brady Quinn. It is bothersome that the Browns have stood virtually pat on offense so opponents should know how to adjust to Cleveland's ground game success of last year. Only four opponents with winning records were faced by the Browns in 2007, but this time around, eight teams with records are on the slate. You long to see consistency from Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, Jr. rather than hourly eruptions. 6-10. CINCINNATI: The Bengals, like Cleveland, were seriously deficient on defense in 2007, but now there are building blocks. New D-coordinator Mike Zimmer is an old NFL hand and head coach Marvin Lewis loves D so this marriage figures to work and work fast. DT Domaka Peko is coming on, rookie LB Keith Rivers gives them a bona fide athlete, and CB Johnathan Joseph is ready to make his mark among the elite. The scariest part will be a pair of second-year safeties, Marvin White and Chine Ndukwe, who will have to hold up and prevent long bombs and short passes turning into big plays. The offense will rely on Carson Palmer, but has added a pair of good rookie receivers in Andre Caldwell and Jerome Simpson. Working with a talent like Palmer will hasten their development. Chris Perry puts more juice into the ground game, but his next full season without injury will be news. The Bengals also signed away a pair of good special teamers from Arizona. I don't care what Chad # 85 calls himself so long as he catches passes. Ben Utecht is a receiving tight end the Bengals have not had in recent memory. 9-7. BALTIMORE: Even if the Ravens come into 2008 healthier, they can’t turn back Father Time as he gradually affects Trevor Pryce, Ray Lewis, Kelly Gregg, Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister. The battle against the clock is about as compelling a story as there is in the league this season because otherwise this is a unit that could propel Baltimore into contention. It is a race that is also being run against a coaching change. New head man John Harbaugh must put his system in place before his players go over the hill. New O-coordinator Cam Cameron’s offense has imperfect parts at QB, WR and LT, and that won’t help. The receivers don’t go deep well. The quarterback will be limited no matter who he is. Foes will beg Baltimore to throw the ball. The Ravens made a big push to enhance special teams, and that always is a boon to an aging team. It says here that the Ravens will rise or fall based on their schedule which contains enough easy pieces--Houston away, Tennessee at home, Miami away, Oakland at home and Washington at home. 7-9. INDIANAPOLIS: Special teams always seem to leave the Colts in field position deficiencies. It may not get better this year, but Peyton Manning and gang are almost always nearly perfect in overcoming that weakness. Tony Dungy keeps on adding speed on defense, and so it goes again this year. Dwight Freeney’s foot is of paramount importance to the unit’s success but he is expected to contribute from the opener. The O-line has to replace RG Jake Scott, but the line coach does a great job and Manning conducts everything so we're basically talking about the difference between good and great. One position at which the Colts have dropped off is tight end, but Manning's expertise conquers every learning curve so rookie TE Jacob Tamme should not take long to bond with him. The biggest hurdles for Indianapolis are Jacksonville's strength and Marvin Harrison's health and advancing age. I would be not at all surprised if the Colts tilt more toward defense and long drive after long drive as the quantity of receivers begins to surpass the quality. A little has been chipped away from the O-line, a little from the receiving corps. Manning himself is now in his 11th season and his body will begin to feel the bruises more and more. If they get to the post-season, the Colts will be the same threat they always are, but getting there could be problematic. 9-7. JACKSONVILLE: Everyone has to beware the Jaguars now. After overcoming the playoff hurdle of winning at Pittsburgh, Jacksonville competed honorably at New England and has the confidence to do even more this season. The Jaguar defense had holes in 2007, but they were caused by injuries. Assuming everyone is healthier and the unit takes quickly to new coordinator Gregg Williams’ schemes, they could be hell on wheels. And that is without calculating the effect of potential pass-rushing fiends Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves. The offense added a proven wideout in Jerry Porter, unrefined but blazing speed in Troy Williamson and greater knowledge of O-coordinator Dirk Koetter’s system in his second year with the team. QB David Garrard has taken over the offensive reins like an old pro. Special teams remain near the top of the league. The Jags are near the top of the league. With the Colts showing chinks in their armor, Jacksonville is ready to ascend to the top of the AFC South and then to use that as a stepping stone to go very deep into the post-season. Players like Fred Taylor, John Henderson and Rashean Mathis have operated under the radar screen for several years but not anymore. 11-5. TENNESSEE: The Titans exploited a relative lack of depth in the AFC in 2007, achieved a wild card playoff position, and performed fairly well at San Diego. The return of former O-coordinator Mike Heimerdinger could help Vince Young if he is not expected to complete too many long balls. He certainly did not thrive in Norm Chow’s offensive system, and Tennessee must find a way to balance an offense that was blatantly ground-oriented last year. The first part of the 2008 season will be consumed with learning the new offense in game situations. The addition of rookie TE Craig Stevens will help in time, but he won’t be in instant lockstep with Young. Rookie RB Chris Johnson will be the most exciting offensive rookie in the league, but he will have to complement Lendale White rather than carry 25 times a game. The Titans will have to rely on the D to win some games early. Again, the Titans will try to inject some spunk into generally lifeless special teams units. A year ago four of the Titans' final five games were Houston, at Kansas City, NY Jets and at Indianapolis without Peyton Manning and other starters. They can't expect another favorable stretch run like that. Opponents will force Young to throw the ball, and that means inconsistency. 8-8. HOUSTON: This team hopes that it is not a year or so away once more. That seems to always be the case for the Texans who now boast big-time DE Mario Williams but must have more to move up the ladder in the talented AFC South. Williams has decent D-linemates in terms of pass rushing, but the Texans have to stop the run if the loaded pass rush is to make any difference. A fifth round draft pick, Frank Okam, is their big hope which tells you plenty. Their best cornerback, Dunta Robinson, remains iffy for the bulk of the season recovering from injury so youngsters will have to man the fort in this critical area. Offensively, the Texans should be much-improved. WR Andre Johnson and QB Matt Schaub should be healthier which helps a lot. The O-line might change at three positions, but RT Eric Winston gets better with each rep. There is plenty to like about the Texans' offense, but I wonder about their D. Their 6.72 yards average per opponent's pass attempt in 2007 was closer to poor than to mediocre. 7-9. SAN DIEGO: San Diego's is near the pinnacle of defenses in the NFL but they could stand to hold up better against the run. NT Jamal Williams enters his 11th NFL season but the odds are greatly against him enduring all of it due to degenerative knees. Opponents will force top notch OLBs Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips to play the run and short pass as much as possible, eliminatingtheir pass rushing strengths. Merriman now knows he has a bad knee, and it is unclear how much that will affect his game. They need their offense to catch up to the superlatives on the other side of the ball. Drafting Jacob Hester of LSU indicates San Diego wants to have options in two-back formations. Hester can run, catch and block. The Chargers lack a complete wide receiver, and it is their clear weakness. Foes will stack the line of scrimmage and force Philip Rivers to throw right from the opening game. Provided that TE Antonio Gates makes it back from a toe injury, the Chargers are in any discussion of Super Bowl candidates but it’s no lock 10-6. DENVER: The Broncos' defense needed lots of attention and experienced quantitative change in the off-season that must be translated into qualitative change. The Broncos will try to force opponents to throw, which would at first glance seem suicidal in a pass-happy, pass-oriented league. The NFL catches up with all gimmicks eventually so Denver will have to spring from the starting gate and establish good standing early. Their horrible 2007 run defense should improve with the additions of DT Dewayne Robertson and LB Boss Bailey. The linebackers are also good in coverage so passing on running downs doesn’t figure to be the solution for Bronco opponents. The offense should be back to where Mike Shanahan wants it. Jay Cutler can deal better with his diabetes, the receivers are improved mightily with Darrell Jackson’s arrival, and the running backs and O-line are never worse than adequate no matter who’s hurt or who’s green. Rookie receiver/returner Eddie Royal was earmarked by the Broncos. The worse thing you can say about the offense is that PK Jason Elam is gone. Special teams look more loaded than usual, but that could be offset if the replacement for Elam, who signed with Atlanta, does not pan out and if the punting does not establish consistency. The Broncos are an AFC sleeper. There are lots of young players on their way up the production ladder, and there is a proven offensive system. 10-6. KANSAS CITY: Watch the Chiefs as they start to put together a forceful defense with Glenn Dorsey’s arrival but the cornerbacks must respond to the cover-2 defensive formula to complete the ascent. Two good rookies at that key position, Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr, will determine the unit’s fate but the D-line will help by offering a fierce pass rush. The offense should be a pleasant surprise so long as Larry Johnson remains in one piece. WR Dwayne Bowe and TE Tony Gonzalez will surely produce. Rookie TE Brad Cottam figures to form a partnership with QB Brodie Croyle that can last years. Herm Edwards counts on good special teams, and that could be a problem this season after having lost a good pair to free agency. While they won't be the doormat a lot of folks anticipate, the Chiefs have limitations at O-line and wide receiver that will prevent them from reaching fully competitive status. 6-10. OAKLAND: The Raiders will present a big, tough O-line to escort RB Darren McFadden, giving Jamarcus Russell a security blanket as he learns. Javon Walker's performance is crucial for the passing game because depth at wide receiver sorely lacking. It will certainly be a higher-profile, higher-risk, higher-reward brand than in 2007. The O-line is a little better, and Russell is thankful for that. Stopping the run was a big problem last year, but Tommy Kelly and Gerard Warren should be an upgrade on the D-line over Warren Sapp and Terdell Sands--and Sands is still around for depth. There is more depth with DE Kalimba Edwards. The secondary is so much better than a year ago after adding CB DeAngelo Hall and S Gibril Wilson that, when taken together with the offensive leap, this team will be one of the most improved in the NFL. What will hold the Raiders back are awful coverage teams. There has been enough of an influx of talent that Oakland won't be a pushover this season. However, the youth at QB, RB and TE will be a cause of mistakes that will deny them a few wins and make the difference between a winning a losing record. 6-10. DALLAS: The Cowboys have the scariest offensive and defensive units in the NFC when they are healthy, maybe by far, but the special teams lost Nathan Jones. Zach Thomas adds his experience and consistency to the defense but he has to stay in one piece to make a difference, not always easy for him. The secondary should be far better and fitter than in 2007 when injuries bit both corners. Pac Man Jones’ arrival helps the cornerback situation, and so does rookie Mike Jenkins'. Even more of a factor will be the experience gained last season in the defensive system. Rookie RB Felix Jones adds a home run dimension to the ground game that will force opposing defenses to come up closer to the line. The Cowboys must meet five winning teams on the road, four at home, no cakewalk. Still, they have loads of starpower and the mobile QB in Tony Romo who can make the most of the other skill players. This team has to be regarded as a major Super Bowl threat. 11-5. NEW YORK GIANTS: Winning the Super Bowl does not make the Giants division favorites because Michael Strahan retired and Osi Umenyiora is out for the year. Justin Tuck cannot be utilized as a wild card defender any longer. Matthias Kiwanuka’s return from injury helps, but will the motors be as charged in the fourth quarters? The methodical offense is built for consistency from beginning of the season to end but Super Bowl hangovers can take a toll on ground game consistency. Special teams have been perhaps Tom Coughlin’s greatest triumph, but their best guy, David Tyree, is on the PUP list for the first six games. This team was not an obviously budding dynasty when it snared last season's Super Bowl trophy. There are veterans who are on their downsides. There are youngsters who have not made their marks in the league. The schedule could be worse but the the last five games of once around the division plus Carolina and Minnesota could be too steep. 7-9. WASHINGTON: Washington could miss Joe Gibbs more than it knows, especially for his special teams acumen. The combination of a new offense and two important rookie receivers should trend toward inconsistency week to week, and that’s not a good thing in the rugged NFC East. The veteran O-line will have to try to stretch their physical limits to acclimate themselves to the new system, and that increases the possibility of injury in an already-fragile unit. Furthermore, tiny wide receivers are not the best of targets in West Coast offenses. Defensively, the picture is clearer and brighter because they add Jason Taylor, regain CB Carlos Rogers who missed half of last season, and boast a blossoming star safety in LaRon Landy. The Redskins range from a contender to a pretender depending upon their division opponents’ fortunes, especially injuries. There is a questionable system fit on offense, Washington has proven performers who would surely step over battered foes in December if given the chance but they will need that stroke of luck. 6-10. PHILADELPHIA: The Eagles made a big move to augment special teams in the off-season and it should pay off. The other units did not need much facelifting to face the camera this season. On defense, expect a big surge at all levels. DT Brodrick Bunkley, LB Stewart Bradley and CB Asante Samuel will all play big roles, and should be up to the parts. It will be important to coax one more big season out of FS Brian Dawkins, but as of this writing there was no reason to believe it won't happen. Donovan McNabb’s health and accuracy remain the biggest questions on offense. He'll be gratified to have a healthier TE L.J. Smith back in the lineup this season, and he will also benefit from having another natural receiver in RB Lorenzo Booker. The Eagles were just too banged up on defense to sustain a mid-season surge that got them back to .500. This time the the defense should be far sturdier and the offense has just enough weaponry to be a consistent influence. 11-5 GREEN BAY: Taking Brett Favre out of the lineup is like taking the white out of the Taj Mahal. With so essential an element gone, you have no idea how the team will now fare. Will opposing defenses stack the line more to contain the ground game? Will the Pack by necessity become a more conservative, boring offense without the presence of its leader and face? Rookie WR Jordy Nelson, a big target at wideout, must come along quickly to aid Aaron Rodgers’ development and confidence. It will be up to a decent defense to carry more of a burden in 2008, a defense that can brag about a pair of excellent linebackers in A. J. Hawk and Nick Barnett to clean up ball carriers and short passes, in addition to proven cornerbacks in Charles Woodson and Al Harris. Rodgers is a question mark but one who has to be given the benefit of the doubt based on length of training and quality of coaching until proven otherwise. 9-7. MINNESOTA: Minnesota was the only team that had even a scent of the Pack much of the way in 2007. The Vikings’ outstanding defense, now sporting pass rushing fiend Jared Allen, could make a claim as the best in the league. You can’t find a weak spot in it, and players like LB Chad Greenway, DE Ray Edwards and CB Cedric Griffin are on the ascent. On offense, QB Tarvaris Jackson must take a big step forward if Minny is to prove it over 16 games. Having speedy Bernard Berrian to go deep helps. Ideally, the Vikes will want to take some more shots deep earlier in games, gain a lead, and let the defense suffocate their adversaries in second halves. This team is not to be taken lightly. The only uncertain performer is the QB, and his last three road games in 2007 were interception-free. Watch out. 10-6. CHICAGO: A better left tackle will certainly help the QB’s confidence on the Bears. Rookie LT Chris Williams would have become the man under the biggest microscope, but his back surgery will prevent that for about half the 2008 season. Chicago’s offense is no sure thing. It would help lots if Devin Hester simply carried over his Pro Bowl return game to his new starting wide receiver assignment and if rookie WR Earl Bennett approaches the production he had in the SEC at Vanderbilt. The defense, not long removed from a Super Bowl, should ride better health to better performance, but really wasn’t bad in 2007 all things considered. Can it carry a deficient offense like it did in the Super Bowl year? Special teams have been a boon the last several years and should stay that way. Whoever logs most of the snaps at quarterback will benefit from a more experienced pass catching TE in Greg Olsen and a more rounded RB in rookie Matt Forte. The defense should shine all season long assuming this time S Mike Brown stays in one piece. 7-9. DETROIT: Until they started playing the bigger boys in the second half of the season, the Lions had a gawdy 6-2 record. Most folks saw it as a mirage, and the second half kept inflicting punctures in the balloon. Mike Martz’ wild offense has left town, and things will get a lot more conservative this season. There will not be real improvement unless the line changes its stripes quickly. Detroit must ride its two great hopes, WRs Calvin Johnson and Roy Williams, and force foes to double-team them on every play. To accomplish that, the Lions must also gain some yardage on the ground, and that would be new for them. It’s not impossible, though, with rookie RB Kevin Smith someone who can absorb punishment up the middle. The defense will give up fewer big plays because it will be better at both safety positions. Special teams are improved but have more distance to cover to be competitive. The secondary is clearly better but probably not good enough for contender status. The running game will be emphasized perhaps to distraction. The schedule is rather easy as schedules in the NFL go. If they get off to a good start this year, they could hang around. 8-8. TAMPA BAY: Tampa Bay was about the most flawed division winner in the league last season, and will get no respect this year. The special teams look like far from a sure thing. The offense depends on Jeff Garcia a bit too much, though the other parts should be at least a tad better than in 2007--more experience and competition at wide receiver, tight end and on the O-line. The defense was great last year, but shows a lot of age, wear and tear even after losing CB Brian Kelly. The pass rushing potential of Greg White and Gaines Adams must do more than flash. Best news is a vanilla schedule that includes matchups with just four winning teams from 2007 three of which are at home. Jon Gruden's coaching has to rate some kudos and extra credit in a mediocre NFC South. With a favorable schedule and an improving O-line, the Bucs should not be overlooked. Still, age advancing age on defense is a large concern because this team is not equipped to win shootouts. 7-9. CAROLINA: The Panthers depend heavily on QB Jake Delhomme’s healthy return to the lineup. With him, the Panthers have a chance to really surge upward in the standings, and it look like all systems are go judging by his performance in the pre-season phase. The remaining problem for Carolina is that Steve Smith is the entire receiving show in this offense. Muhsin Muhammad is over the hill. D.J. Hackett is just a projection when you think about what he can produce over a full season. Dwayne Jarrett has upside but has yet to show his best side. Even with RB Jonathan Stewart and a retooled O-line, Carolina looks bland on offense. The defense looks to be at least competitive if not more. At least five helpful players spread over every level of the defense have been added to the mix. Special teams were a constant worry in 2007, but they have been addressed in the off-season. A healthy Delhomme and an improved O-line mean that Carolina can reach more of its potential, but exactly what is its potential? The personnel department in this franchise has not delivered. There is little offensive identity, and the defense will have to stay on the field too long most weeks. 8-8 NEW ORLEANS: The Saints had a major rebuilding chore on defense following a disappointing 2007 season. The defense must pitch in its share and it looks like the off-season acquisitions will pave the way for that. With Sedric Ellis moving into the D-line, the front four is looking more formidable. DE Bobby McCray adds more juice to the pass rush, very important in that the secondary added just ex-Patriot Randall Gay and rookie Tracy Porter. The Saints never seem to have it together on special teams, and the same could be true this time. After one great post-Katrina season, Drew Brees is feeling besieged these days. He wasn’t built to play the Goliath role. The offense should be effective, especially if Deuce McAllister returns to form, and it should be enough to keep the Saints in the division mix. This division is the least inspirational of all of them in the NFL. That also makes it the division in which it is easiest to go from worse to first. The Saints fit that profile this season. They have done enough to eclipse their divisionmates. 9-7. ATLANTA: Atlanta needed to start from scratch and it did. New head coach Mike Smith has upgraded the defense, especially at linebacker, and that should pay off in a division that is there for anybody’s taking. The pass rush will surely be there from John Abraham so the secondary should be in position to pilfer some footballs. Special teams should be way better under a head coach who cares about them. The offense will suffer behind an unproven O-line and rookie QB Matt Ryan. It may not be asked to take many risks, focusing on handing off to former San Diego Charger Michael Turner, but wouldn’t seem to be in line for rewards. The sooner rookie WR Harry Douglas can contribute, the better. The Turner-oriented offense won't be embarrassing so long as Turner stays on the field. If the new Falcon RB takes too many direct hits early in the season, however, his staying power will come squarely into question. Ryan has no effective pass catching tight end and this team should have no extra gear when it staggers past the halfway mark of the season. 4-12. SEATTLE: The Seahawks hope for a revitalized front four, and an unheralded draft choice, DE Lawrence Jackson from USC, will play a big part. He can relieve DE Darryl Tapp, leaving Tapp fresh for pass rushing exploits. With DT Rocky Bernard returning to health, Seattle’s front four moves up. We know that the linebackers and secondary are among the best the pro league has to offer. The O-line must keep LT Walter Jones in one piece. Assuming that can be done, this is a very good unit and even better if WR Deion Branch can contribute at all after an injury. Rookie TE John Carlson adds an offensive weapon. Special teams may be down some so the other units have to carry things. Branch and Bobby Engram likely won't make the starting gun for the season, but they will be there when the games become crucial and they won't have any learning curves. The Julius Jones-T.J. Duckett-Maurice Morris running back trifecta should be a winner at least stamina-wise. 10-6. ARIZONA: Arizona’s defense also feasted on a soft schedule and lost Calvin Pace in free agency to the Jets, but the unit should be stronger overall as four outside linebackers will be around to divide the pass rushing chores and the D-line has picked up reinforcements through the draft. The defense will have to carry the load for the Cards, but a less than scintillating offense, at least for the moment run by Kurt Warner, will be a heavy load to carry. The Cards don't want to be entering desert fourth quarters with the tired defense but that is precisely the scenario they are facing against better foes. Unfortunately for a mediocre team, special teams could tip the balance for the worse. The Cards can't be accused of failing to try to improve their personnel picture, but an O-line that produced the third worst rush average in the league has not added any large quantity of juice. Rookie RB Tim Hightower was a clever late round draft pick, but he's likely no star and not enough to turn it around by himself. With Ken Whisenant coaching, this unfortunately still resembles the Steelers' practice squad at too many places. 6-10. SAN FRANCISCO: The 49er defense was much better than its statistics, which paled owing to a pathetic offense. That offense should dial it up more this season. Mike Martz’ schemes have come to town, and he has brought ex-Ram Isaac Bruce with him. Add speedy TE Vernon Davis, and there could be cause for fear among opposing secondaries. Frank Gore’s running balances the attack so this would be an exponential rise if only a competent quarterback were on board. It will have to be J.T. O'Sullivan but let's give the guy a chance. If the offense improves, that allows the defense to grow. DE Justin Smith and OLB Manny Lawson, who missed almost all of 2007 due to injury, will inject some zest into the unit, and there already is a good chunk of that with ILB Patrick Willis. Special teams should be way better.The run-oriented offense--it will have to be that way even if running strongly against Martz' better judgment--should preserve the defense for the fourth quarters. 7-9. ST. LOUIS: The Rams were flat out bad in 2007 but there were lots of injuries so you can’t just blame it on the roster. Rookie DE Chris Long figures to lift the defense. On offense, the blocking figures to be much improved, starting with the expectation of a full season from star LT Orlando Pace. Every other position on the O-line will be better, too, partly from the ripple effect of Pace’s presence and partly from recovery from injuries and partly from new free agent signee G Jacob Bell. A changing of the guard is evident in the receiving corps, as longtime star Isaac Bruce moves on to rival San Francisco while rookie speed demon Donnie Avery enters the scene. PK Josh Brown is a great new weapon for the offense and special teams. The Rams have a chance, and that is saying a lot after 2007. The front four on defense will be worth watching and could be a major factor in the division if they remain healthy. The offense will depend a lot on the line--its health and its effectiveness--and on Steven Jackson's perseverance. 8-8. ------------------- 2007-08 Selection Sunday J-Ratings through games of March 15 1--Memphis, North Carolina, UCLA, Kansas 2--Tennessee, Texas, Wisconsin, Duke 3--Xavier, Georgetown, Stanford, Pitt 4--Louisville, Washington State, Butler, Clemson 5--Drake, Notre Dame, Indiana, Connecticut 6--Michigan State, Marquette, Southern Cal, Arkansas 7--Gonzaga, Davidson, Vanderbilt, Purdue 8--Texas A&M, Mississippi State, West Virginia, Kent State 9--Kansas State, BYU, St. Joseph's, Miami 10--South Alabama, Arizona, UNLV, St. Mary's 11--Temple, Baylor, Arizona State, Western Kentucky 12--Illinois State, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Ohio State 13--Oral Roberts, Siena, George Mason, Cal State-
Fullerton 14--American, Cornell, Winthrop, Boise State 15--Maryland-Baltimore County, Austin Peay, Belmont, San Diego 16--Portland State, Northwestern State/Texas-Arlington, Mount St. Mary's, Coppin State, Mississippi Valley State Could be bumped by Georgia and/or Illinois: Virginia Tech, Ohio State. Outside and looking in: Florida, Massachusetts, VCU, Mississippi, Syracuse, Houston, Villanova, Creighton, Kentucky, Stephen F. Austin, UAB, IUPUI, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon.
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The College Football J-Ratings
Through games played Nov. 8 1. Alabama 2. Texas Tech 3. Texas 4. Florida 5. Oklahoma 6. Penn State 7. USC 8. Utah 9. Oklahoma State 10. Ohio State 11. Georgia 12. Boise State 13. Missouri 14. TCU 15. Ball State 16. LSU 17. BYU 18. Michigan State 19. North Carolina 20. California 21. Cincinnati 22. Northwestern 23. Florida State 24. Pittsburgh 25. Miami 26. Tulsa 27. Iowa 28. Georgia Tech 29. Oregon State 30. Wake Forest 31. Air Force 32. South Carolina 33. Nebraska 34. Oregon 35. Virginia Tech 36. Central Michigan 37. Kentucky 38. Arizona 39. Vanderbilt 40. Mississippi 41. West Virginia 42. Boston College 43. Maryland 44. Navy 45. Connecticut 46. South Florida 47. Minnesota 48 Kansas 49. Notre Dame 50. Rice 51. Louisville 52. East Carolina 53. Houston 54. Nevada 55. San Jose State 47. Western Michigan
Copyright 2006 by Jayson Myers.